思源电气（002028）：实现盈利和成长性的完美结合

　　公司是电网、电站设备行业的重点公司，主要客户是国家电网公司，确保了公司经营业绩有良好的稳健性。在目前投资者纷纷担忧上市公司业绩下滑的市场形势下，公司超前公告2008年全年净利润将同比增长20%-40%，卸除了投资者的后顾之忧。

由于公司不断有新产品带来新的利润增长点出现，促进了公司保持持续高速增长的态势，实现了盈利性和成长性较好的结合，从而被诸多机构投资者重点持有并持续看好。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         (元)
08年	09年	10年
国信证券	2008/10/30	推荐	公司前三季度产品的综合毛利率为44%，基本与去年同期持平。由于输变电行业的高景气度以及公司在高压隔离开关、消弧线圈等领域领先地位，还有公司在产品价格和原材料成本上较好的控制能力是保持高毛利的重要原因。公司目前的主导产品将不可避免的逐渐达到“天花板”，而公司积极募投的技术含量更高的GIS以及电力电子产品将是保障未来增长的重要产品。估计GIS产品在2009 年的下半年或更晚一些开始逐渐放量，在完全达产后GIS产品给公司带来新增收入有可能超过8亿元。	1.25	1.48	1.70	28.00
中投证券	2008/10/30	强烈推荐	三大主业中消弧线圈、高压开关的增长符合预期，而互感器前期停标影响较大，业绩低于预期。但从四季度目前订单来看，全年业绩不会低于预期。消弧线圈和高压开关还将延续此增速，而互感器四季度交货量较多，全年增速应该可以达到40%左右。另外，电容器、电抗器、油色谱在线监测仪08年增速将超过100%，逐步成为例如贡献的重要力量。GIS产品09 年中期投产、清能公司的SVG和曦能公司的继电保护及自动化系统也进展顺利，市场销售将是未来的重点。	1.28	1.51	2.14	30.00
平安证券	2008/10/30	强烈推荐	作为具有超前思维的优秀管理团队，在新产品的选择上以及行业的判断上都显示出独特眼光，新产品的不断培育机制成为公司持续高速成长的关键。反映到财务数据上，在存量产品保持稳定增长的前提下，由于不断有新的利润增长点出现，促进了公司高速增长。随着基数扩大，公司的增速即使出现幅度下降，但增长趋势仍是确定的。	1.14	1.60	2.09	32.00~                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         33.00
联合证券	2008/10/29	增持	公司前三季度实现销售收入10.62亿元，同比增长35.63%；归属母公司净利润2.34亿元，同比增长91.8%，扣除非经常性损益的净利润为1.58亿元，同比增长31.01%。公司超强的产品开发能力，为公司长期稳定增长提供了强有力的保障。GIS研发成功，将为公司注入新的增长动力。	1.35	1.47	1.91	-
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	1.255	1.515	1.96	30.17
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	15.61	12.93	10.00
风 险 提 示
（1）研发支出推动管理费用上升；（2）原材料价格变动对利润有影响；（3）作为基金重仓股之一，流动性较差。